Scores since 1990
Monthly. 50 = typical for 1990 to today. Shaded areas are recessions.
Range
Housing market
How affordable homes are, how much is for sale and how much strain the economy is under, each scored against the last 35 years. A score of 50 means typical for that period.
Affordability
What it costs to buy the median home, compared with the median household’s income.
Mortgage payment as a share of income
What goes into the affordability score
Supply
How many homes are being built and how many are available.
Building permits and housing starts
Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau via FRED.
What goes into the supply score
Market stress
Signs of strain in jobs, credit and bank funding that tend to come before housing downturns. Higher means more stress. It is not a forecast.
What it costs to build and own a home
Price changes for building materials and for the ongoing costs of a home.
Range
Building materials
Producer price indexes. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Costs of owning or renting
Consumer price indexes. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Median home price by region
Median sales price of houses sold, quarterly.
Show
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD via FRED.
How the scores work
Ranked against history. Each indicator is compared with every month since 1990 (or since the indicator began). If today’s mortgage payment takes a bigger share of income than in 80% of past months, that indicator scores 20 for affordability. There are no hand-picked cutoffs, so a score of 50 simply means typical for this period, and a score from 2006 can be compared with one from today.
Affordability weighs the monthly payment as a share of income (45%), the home price to income ratio (35%) and the mortgage rate (20%). The payment assumes a 30-year fixed loan for 80% of the median price of houses sold. Median household income is published yearly, so recent months extend it by the growth in average hourly earnings.
Supply weighs the months’ supply of new homes (35%), the homeowner vacancy rate (25%), building permits (25%) and new homes for sale (15%).
Market stress averages 16 indicators of strain in jobs, credit and bank funding, with unemployment, mortgage delinquencies and the yield curve counting double.
Housing health = 45% affordability + 35% supply + 20% of (100 − market stress). Quarterly figures, such as delinquency rates, stand in for the months until the next release.
These scores describe conditions; they are not predictions, and a high stress score does not mean prices will fall. Figures are national, and local markets can differ a lot. Mortgage rates are from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; SOFR is from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; all other data are from the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Department of Labor and the Federal Reserve, via FRED. Educational information only, not financial advice.